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TOTEPLACEPOT PREVIEW FOR GRAND NATIONAL DAY
TALK ABOUT IT IN OUR HORSE RACING FORUM Here's Malcolm Boyle's Toteplacepot AINTREE - APRIL 5TH Recent Toteplacepot 2007: £7,305.80 2006: £22.40 2005: £2,228.50 2004: £217.00 2003: £1,232.30 2002: £750.10 Average Toteplacepot Average Toteplacepot 1.45 The last eleven winners have all carried weights of 10-8 or less, Five and six-year-olds have claimed five victories in the last seven years, and TAKE THE BREEZE might best represent the five-year-old vintage this time around. Paul Nicholls has once again demonstrated his knowledge of what is required to win a decent race on the calendar (won, lose or draw) by saddling a horse bang on the 'superior' weight which is by deign, not via a coincidence! The top trainers follow the trends which helps to make them successful compared to dare I say 'lazier' handlers. Nothing is left to chance by the likes of Nicholls, Pipe and Hobbs, and that includes the study of previous results. Other horses on the overnight short list include SONG OF SONGS and PEARL KING. Six-year-trends: Fate of the favs: Winner:0--placed:1--Unplaced:5 Vintage stats: 5YO: 3-4-31 (three winners four places-thirty-one unplaced) 6YO: 2-7-25 7YO: 0-5-18 8YO: 0-1-11 9YO: 1-0-2 10Y: 0-1-0 13Y: 0-0-1 2.15 Paul Nicholls has saddled four five-year-old winners in the last six years, and his recent Sandown winner TAKEROC looks sure to take the beating here, especially from a Toteplacepot Six-year-trends: Vintage stats: Fate of the favs: Winner:1--placed:3--Unplaced:1 5YO: 4-3-7 6YO: 0-1-5 7YO: 1-3-11 8YO: 1-1-3 9YO: 0-0-2 11Y: 0-0-1 2.50 Last year's winner AL EILE has a decent chance of doubling up in the event if in the same post-Christmas form which saw the eight-year-old beat Hardy Eustace over this trip and finish third in the Grade one Irish AIG event before giving best to Harchibald at Dundalk over an inadequate twelve furlong trip. Timmy Murphy's mount comes to the party as a relatively fresh horse having swerved Cheltenham this time around, and the ten-time winner has a fine chance of scoring again. AFSOUN ran third to the selection twelve months ago and Nicky Henderson's raider has similar claims here, with the two mile championship events proving just beyond him from a win perspective. KALDERON is somethingof a 'dark horse' from an English punter's perspective, and David Casey's mount could run well at rewarding odds. OSANA did absolutely nothing wrong behind Katchit in the Champion Hurdle but the six-year-old has endured a busy season and might represent poor value on this occasion. The other runners have all plied their respective trades against similar opposition in the past without a great deal of success from a percentage perspective in win terms, albeit horses like STRAW BEAR and MY WAY DE SOLZEN (to name but two individuals) are talented types and no mistake. Six-year-trends: Fate of the favs: Winner:1--placed:3--Unplaced:3 Vintage stats: 4YO: 0-1-1 5YO: 1-2-10 6YO: 2-1-11 7YO: 2-0-10 8YO: 1-2-10 9YO: 0-4-3 10Y: 0-1-1 11Y: 0-0-1 12Y: 0-0-1 3.25 Seven and eight-year-olds have the best record in this event and the pick of the vintage representatives on this occasion might prove to be the disappointing Cheltenham failure DON'T PUSH IT and FOREST PENNANT. Jonjo O'Neill has won this race three times in the last six years and comes to the party on a hat trick. DON'T PUSH IT has four pounds more than I would have liked from a trends perspective (note that FOREST PENNANT-Paul Nicholls again-sits the right side of the handicap barrier) but such was the confidence behind the Old Vic gelding at Prestbury Park, that Tony McCoy must have a chance of riding a winner on Grand National day in this event. Others in contention as the runners turn for home should include ACCORDING TO PETE and GUSTAVO. Six-year-trends: Fate of the favs: Winner:2--placed:4--Unplaced:4 Vintage stats: 5YO: 0-0-10 6YO: 1-2-14 7YO: 3-1-18 8YO: 2-6-17 9YO: 0-2-4 10Y: 0-1-1 11Y: 0-0-4 4.15 The 2008 renewal of the Grand Nation revolves around one horse basically, and CLOUDY LANE would be continuing the 'dynasty' of the McCain family to a fashion, if Donald saddles the winner this time around. The question we have to ask is would bookmakers be prepared to offer a price about the favourite not winning the race, and therein lies the key to the contest. In these days of cut-throat bookmaking, a layer should be prepared to offer a price of 1/6 about Cloudy Lane failing to land the big prize (opposite odds), if the price to win the race is 7/2, as some people are suggesting might be the case! The truth is that bookmakers will be keeping their mouths well and truly shut regarding the 'opposite odds', which suggests that we should be looking for value elsewhere, albeit that CLOUDY LANE is weighted to win the great steeplechase barring accidents. MR POINTMENT would have disputed favouritsm in my book, had the Paul Nicholls raider not blotted his copybook in the race won by CLOUDY LANE at Doncaster, having created such a favourable impression when landing the Becher Chase here at Aintree in November. That said, 11-11 is a stopping weight according to the trends and as a professional 'bleeder', it's doubtful that the Old Vic gelding will remain 'fit' for the full four and a half mile contest. The fact that there are 'compressed weights' in this year's race (not such a big gap between top and bottom weight) suggests that runners towards the top of the handicap might have more of a chance this year, and the leading lights from this sector include TURKO, the Irish Grand National winner BUTLER'S CABIN and SIMON. Others further down the list worth a second glance at the very least include COMPLY OR DIE and last year's runner up MCKELVEY. Aside from the McCain takeover bid at Liverpool, Irish trained runners have won four of the last five renewals, and the pick of the horses from across the water might prove to be SNOWY MORNING and SLIM PICKINGS, as the groundmight ride too fast for SNOWY MORNING who would otherwise have been in contention for a place in my Toteplacepot Six-year-trends: Fate of the favs: Winner:1--placed:4--Unplaced:7 Vintage stats: 6YO: 0-0-4 7YO: 0-0-9 8YO: 1-5-39 9YO: 1-4-60 10Y: 3-3-43 11Y: 0-6-39 12Y: 1-0-16 13Y: 0-0-4 14Y: 0-0-1 Similar stats (and so much more) can be found at the turf tool kit website. 5.00 Four of the last six winners have carried weights of 11-1 or more, whilst six/seven/eight-year-olds hold sway in the vintage sector. The facts and stats suggest that a short list comprising of THE REAL DEAL, MY PETRA and FOREST GREEN might serve us well in the Toteplacepot Six-year-trends: Fate of the favs: Winner:1--placed:2--Unplaced:3 Vintage stats: 5YO: 0-1-6 6YO: 1-1-4 7YO: 2-3-19 8YO: 3-5-12 9YO: 0-1-9 10Y: 0-1-5 11Y: 0-0-1 12Y: 0-0-1 13Y: 0-0-1 CHEPSTOW: Recent Toteplacepot 2007: £122.90 2006: £454.80 Average Toteplacepot Average Toteplacepot There is no history relating to the meeting at KEMPTON: Average Toteplacepot LINGFIELD: Recent Toteplacepot 2007: £37.90 2006: £25.10 2005: £50.20 2004: £54.20 2003: £475.20 2002: £213.40 Average Toteplacepot Average Toteplacepot NEWCASTLE: Recent Toteplacepot 2007: £713.90 2005: £871.80 2004: £414.40 2002: £468.60 Average Toteplacepot Average Toteplacepot 2008 average Toteplacepot A/W venues: Lingfield (£143.20--30 meetings) Kempton (£195.36--35 meetings) Southwell (£153.16--31 meetings) Wolverhampton (£147.06--45 meetings) NH courses: Aintree (£18.80--1 meeting) Ascot (£97.50--2 meetings) Ayr (£307.43--6 meetings) Bangor (£56.03--3 meetings) Carlisle (£59.53--3 meetings) Cartmel (no meetings as yet) Catterick (£368.95--4 meetings) Cheltenham (£206.48--5 meetings) Chepstow (£201.58--7 meetings) Doncaster (£209.82--5 meetings) Exeter (£95.75--7 meetings) Fakenham (£37.03--3 meetings) Folkestone (£87.90--5 meetings) Fontwell (£56.24--7 meetings) Haydock (£548.20--2 meetings) Hereford (£56.50--4 meetings) Hexham (£27.40--2 meetings) Huntingdon (£430.70--7 meetings) Kelso (£823.72--4 meetings) Kempton (£628.60--5 meetings) Leicester (£764.36--5 meetings) Lingfield (£3.45--2 meetings) Ludlow (£182.27--5 meetings) Market Rasen (£146.32--4 meetings) Musselburgh (£606.62--4 meetings) Newbury (£439.57--6 meetings) Newcastle (£488.35--7 meetings) Newton Abbot (£47.80--1 meeting) Perth (no meetings as yet) Plumpton (£448.90--6 meetings) Sandown (£303.22--6 meetings) Sedgefield (£119.25--4 meetings) Southwell (£16.30--1 meeting) Stratford (£223.03--3 meetings) Taunton (£374.28--8 meetings) Towcester (£57.85--2 meetings) Uttoxeter (£208.65--2 meetings) Warwick (£173.85--5 meetings) Wetherby (£144.50--3 meetings) Wincanton (£98.47--7 meetings) Windsor (no meetings as yet) Worcester (no meetings as yet) Flat (turf) courses: Catterick (£730.80--1 meeting) Doncaster (£5,977.85--2 meetings) Folkestone (£79.10--1 meeting) Leicester (£342.20--1 meeting) Musselburgh (£27.00--1 meeting) Nottingham (£772.60--1 meeting) Pontefract (£83.10--1 meeting) Redcar (£89.10--1 meeting) Warwick (£150.80--1 meeting) TALK ABOUT IT IN OUR HORSE RACING FORUM
By Bettingzone.co.uk Used with permission. |
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