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TOTEPLACEPOT PREVIEW FOR AINTREE DAY ONE
TALK ABOUT IT IN OUR HORSE RACING FORUM Here's Malcolm Boyle's Toteplacepot Race 1 (2.00pm) 2 (Inglis Drever) & 7 (Kicks For Free) Race 2 (2.35pm) 2 (Kauto Star), 4 (Our Vic) & 5 (Gungadu) Race 3 (3.10pm) 1 (Binocular) & 2 (Celestial Halo) Race 4 (3.45pm) 16 (Thisthatandtother), 19 (Whitenzo), 12 (Katarino) & 3 (Alvino) Race 5 (4.20pm) 7 (Desert Quest), 15 (Four Chimneys) & 2 (Wanango) Race 6 (4.55pm) 5 (Franchoek), 2 (Group Captain) & 6 (Whiteoak) Recent Toteplacepot 2007: £77.10 2006: £30.20 2005: £115.60 2004: £31.00 2003: £973.80 2002: £961.10 Average Toteplacepot Average Toteplacepot 2.00 Seven-year-olds have the edge according to the figures (see stats below) and the pick of the vintage representatives this time around should prove to be KICKS FOR FREE. The Paul Nicholls raider will probably have trouble coping with INGLIS DREVER however, on what might be Howard Johnson's raider's last outing following a fantastic career which I surely don't need to embellish upon. KICKS FOR FREE is just about the only opponent who has not been kicked into touch by the favourite on a regular basis, and his Coral Cup runner up effort marks him down as toteplacepot material against the other runners in the race who are well exposed in this grade. BALLYFITZ in another contender who might make his presence felt from an each way perspective. Four-year-trends: Fate of the favs: Winner:1--placed:2--Unplaced:1 Trainer facts and figures: All six of the 'Pipe runners' have finished out of the money. Vintage stats: 5YO: 0-1-3 (No winners-1 placed horse-3 out of the frame) 6YO: 1-3-4 7YO: 3-2-4 8YO: 0-1-4 9YO: 0-0-2 10Y: 0-0-3 11Y: 0-0-2 12Y: 0-0-2 2.35 Time will probably prove that being beaten by Denman in this year's Cheltenham Gold Cup was no bad effort, despite people having made excuses for KAUTO STAR since the big race was run. Paul Nicholls must overcome a poor record in this event (see stats below) but the trainer has never been one to bypass an opportunity to set the record straight, a scenario which is on the cards in this contest. OUR VIC thoroughly deserved his Cheltenham Festival victory last month and though this is as far as the Old Vic gelding wants to travel, another decent cheque should be on its way to connections following the race. GUNGADU is Paul's other runner and there has to be a chance that Sam Thomas will ride the bottom weight into the official unsaddling enclosure, possibly snaring a forecast scenario for the Ditcheat based team. EXOTIC DANCER won this race last year but has not shown the same enthusiasm for the game at the business end of races since a titanic struggle with KAUTO STAR at Haydock earlier in the season. Six-year-trends: Fate of the favs: Winner:1--placed:3--Unplaced:2 Trainer facts and figures: The 'Pipe stable' (OUR VIC) has saddled nine runners, two winners (8/1 & 11/2), two placed horses and five horses that finished out of the frame. This has not been a good race for Paul Nicholls, as only one of his five recent raiders has finished in the frame, with four representatives finishing well down the field. Vintage stats: 6YO: 0-1-2 7YO: 1-2-2 8YO: 1-1-5 9YO: 0-2-7 10Y: 2-1-5 11Y: 2-1-4 12Y: 0-1-3 3.10 CELESTIAL HALO won the 'Triumph' in the style of a really good horse, albeit the four-year-old championship event could have been classed as a low key affair compared to some renewals with only fourteen runners in the line up this time around. The five length winning margin over Franchoek could not be faulted however on what turned out to be a red letter day for Paul Nicholls, even by his own magnificent standards. BINOCULAR entered the straight in cruise control in the opening event of the Cheltenham extravaganza, but Tony McCoy's mount found Captain Cee Bee too strong on the run in. This track might bring out the best in Nicky Henderson's raider, given that his first two victories were secured at similarly flat venues at Ascot and Kempton. FIRST BUDDY ran well when coming off the pace to finished second on the flat recently, having won his maiden hurdle event at Bangor at the second time of asking. Alan Swinbank's raider could make the fancied pair pull out all the stops at rewarding each way odds. LUPANAR won well at Folkestone last time out but this company represents a whole new ball game. Six-year-trends: Fate of the favs: Winner:3--placed:1--Unplaced:2 Race restricted to four-year-olds (no vintage stats to offer) 3.45 It would be churlish to ignore the claims of KATARINO who has won this race (as a fresh horse) twice in the last three years. This company represents a stiffer test however and the Waley-Cohen raider might find the gold rosette hard to come by this time around. That said, Sam's mount has to be included in my toteplacepot permutation, possible alongside the Paul Nicholls duo, THISTHATANDTOTHER and WHITENZO. THISTHATANDTOTHER was beaten at odds of 1/8 at Bangor last time out when looking all over the winner for the majority of the contest, but it is his form when pulled up in the 2007 Grand National that implores yours truly to give him another chance in this grade. Nick Schofield's mount was going as well as anything at this distance twelve months ago before running our of stamina a mile further down the line. WHITENZO would also warrant each way support if we could be assured he was going to take kindly to these fences. ALVINIO is also vying for a Toteplacepot Six-year-trends: Fate of the favs: Winner:1--placed:3--Unplaced:3 Vintage stats: 7YO: 0-1-5 8YO: 0-0-9 9YO: 1-2-20 10Y: 2-3-40 11Y: 2-4-31 12Y: 1-1-23 13Y: 0-0-13 14Y: 0-1-1 4.20 Three of the eight raiders that Paul Nicholls has saddled in the race during the study period have claimed toteplacepot positions, albeit that no gold medals were won in the process. ANDREAS and SAINTSAIRE have similar place credentials this time around, though more logical winners include the likes of DESERT QUEST and FOUR CHIMNEYS, horses that race from the 'superior' sector of the handicap according to recent trends. Five of the last six winners have carried weights of 10-13 or less, whilst FOUR CHIMNEYS also qualifies via the decent record of seven-year-olds in the contest. The only other vintage representative is WANANGO from further up the weights, whilst Tony McCoy has remained loyal to the Tommy Stack raider, albeit via his contract with J.P. Six-year-trends: Fate of the favs: Winner:3--placed:2--Unplaced:1 Vintage stats: 6YO: 0-4-4 7YO: 2-4-15 8YO: 2-3-20 9YO: 2-2-18 10Y: 0-1-9 11Y: 0-0-5 4.55 I'm not at all surprised that connections of FRANCHOEK have decided to target this race, as the four-year-old will never have a better opportunity of staying two and a half miles than at this venue. GROUP CAPTAIN was a disappointment in the 'Ballymore' at Cheltenham, though he went to that particular party lacking serious experience compared to many of his rivals. Alan King has called upon blinkers and it's far too early to write off the Dr Fong gelding just yet. WHITOAK has secured two recent 'mares only' contests of late but has run well against colts and gelding before now. Donald McCain could mark the start of what might turn out to be a sensational week by saddling the five-year-old to victory in this Toteplacepot Six-year-trends: Fate of the favs: Winner:1--placed:3--Unplaced:3 Vintage stats: 4YO: 0-2-11 5YO: 2-2-17 6YO: 4-6-18 7YO: 0-1-6 9YO: 0-1-0 LEICESTER: Recent Toteplacepot 2007: £24.30 2006: £58.40 2005: £396.20 2004: £43.80 2003: £252.60 2002: £37.60 Average Toteplacepot Average Toteplacepot TAUNTON: Recent Toteplacepot 2006: £399.90 2005: £2,483.80 2004: £44.90 2003: £80.80 2002: £1,664.50 Average Toteplacepot Average Toteplacepot 2008 average Toteplacepot A/W venues: Lingfield (£143.55--29 meetings) Kempton (£200.67--33 meetings) Southwell (£153.16--31 meetings) Wolverhampton (£147.06--45 meetings) NH courses: Aintree (no meetings as yet) Ascot (£97.50--2 meetings) Ayr (£307.43--6 meetings) Bangor (£56.03--3 meetings) Carlisle (£59.53--3 meetings) Cartmel (no meetings as yet) Catterick (£368.95--4 meetings) Cheltenham (£206.48--5 meetings) Chepstow (£201.58--7 meetings) Doncaster (£209.82--5 meetings) Exeter (£95.75--7 meetings) Fakenham (£37.03--3 meetings) Folkestone (£87.90--5 meetings) Fontwell (£56.24--7 meetings) Haydock (£548.20--2 meetings) Hereford (£56.50--4 meetings) Hexham (£27.40--2 meetings) Huntingdon (£430.70--7 meetings) Kelso (£823.72--4 meetings) Kempton (£628.60--5 meetings) Leicester (£764.36--5 meetings) Lingfield (£3.45--2 meetings) Ludlow (£182.27--5 meetings) Market Rasen (£146.32--4 meetings) Musselburgh (£606.62--4 meetings) Newbury (£439.57--6 meetings) Newcastle (£488.35--7 meetings) Newton Abbot (£47.80--1 meeting) Perth (no meetings as yet) Plumpton (£448.90--6 meetings) Sandown (£303.22--6 meetings) Sedgefield (£119.25--4 meetings) Southwell (£16.30--1 meeting) Stratford (£223.03--3 meetings) Taunton (£414.17--7 meetings) Towcester (£57.85--2 meetings) Uttoxeter (£208.65--2 meetings) Warwick (£173.85--5 meetings) Wetherby (£144.50--3 meetings) Wincanton (£98.47--7 meetings) Windsor (no meetings as yet) Worcester (no meetings as yet) Flat (turf) courses: Doncaster (£5,977.85--2 meetings) Folkestone (£79.10--1 meeting) Musselburgh (£27.00--1 meeting) Pontefract (£83.10--1 meeting) Redcar (£89.10--1 meeting) Warwick (£150.80--1 meeting) Thursday 3rd April 2008 TALK ABOUT IT IN OUR HORSE RACING FORUM
By Bettingzone.co.uk Used with permission. |
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